Gautam Anand
The year 2020 proved to be a landmark year in so many ways. The pandemic not only changed the way we live and function but also forced us to rethink how we consume entertainment. While streaming services like Netflix and Hulu thrived, several movie theaters are on the brink of extinction. One does wonder if the downfall of movie theaters will lead filmmakers to think differently and start making movies that are more suitable for the small screen rather than the big theatrical experience.
Taking cognizance of the changing viewing habits, even the Academy tweaked the rules of eligibility for Oscar consideration this year. The films that released directly on streaming services were eligible to contest at Oscars and as a result, the highest ever number of movies, 366, are competing for Best Picture Oscar this year. But more number of films doesn’t necessarily mean better quality of films. While there were a few memorable films that released last year, overall 2020 was one of the weakest years in cinema in recent memory. Many filmmakers and movie studios decided to not release their films because they wanted the viewers to experience their creation on big screens rather than streaming services.
In any case, today, we are here to make some predictions and that’s what we going to do. One advantage of having a weak year is that predicting Oscars becomes slightly less complicated. In most years, there are at least ten contenders fighting for five spots, but this year, barring a few categories, you might have to look very hard to find more than seven to eight contenders. A category like Best Actress that had over ten very strong contenders last year doesn’t even have seven solid contenders this year. Even Best Picture, which normally has 15-20 movies competing for 8-9 spots, has only 12 solid contenders.
Despite the fact, the Oscar race might not be as tightly contested this year, when it comes to making actual predictions you have to be extra careful in not allowing yourself to be partial towards your favorites. The secret of my success in making over 85% of correct predictions every year for the last seven years is that I try very hard to disassociate myself from how much I like a particular film. What only matters to me is historical data and the precursor awards. And obviously, above all, I trust my intuition to tell which direction the wind is blowing.
With that said, here’s the full list of predictions in all 20 categories of Oscars 2021. It is a long list and you will need some time to go through it one by one. So take your time.
Nominations for the 93rd Academy Awards will be announced at 5:19 am PT on Monday, 15th March.
Best Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Promising Young Woman
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sound of Metal
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Potential Surprises: News of the World; Da 5 Bloods
Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Potential Surprise: Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun, Minari
Potential Surprise: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Potential Surprise: Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Potential Surprise: Alan Kim, Minari
Best Supporting Actress
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfriend, Mank
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Potential Surprise: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
News of the World
Potential Surprise: The White Tiger
Best Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Sound of Metal
Potential Surprise: Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Potential Surprise: Tenet
Best Film Editing
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Sound of Metal
Promising Young Woman
Potential Surprise: Minari
Best Costume Design
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Emma
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mulan
Potential Surprise: One Night in Miami
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mank
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Birds of Prey
Pinocchio
Potential Surprise: Emma
Best Production Design
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the Wold
Mulan
Tenet
Potential Surprise: The Midnight Sky
Best Original Score
Soul
Mank
News of the World
Minari
The Midnight Sky
Potential Surprise: Tenet
Best Original Song
Speak Now, One Night in Miami
Lo Si, Seen
Fight for You, Judas and the Black Messiah
Hear My Voice, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Turntables, All In: The Fight for Democracy
Potential Surprise: Husavik, Eurovision Song Contest
Best Sound
Sound of Metal
Greyhound
News of the World
Mank
Tenet
Potential Surprise: The Trial of the Chicago 7; Soul
Best Visual Effects
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mank
Welcome to Chechnya
Mulan
Potential Surprise: One and Only Ivan
Best Animated Feature
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
The Croods: New Age
Over the Moon
Potential Surprise: Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Best Foreign Film
Another Round
The Two of Us
Collective
La Llorona
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Potential Surprise: Dear Comrades
Best Documentary Feature
Time
Boys State
Dick Johnson Is Dead
Collective
Welcome to Chechnya
Potential Surprise: Crip Camp
Final Tally
Mank: 12 nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7: 7 nominations
Nomadland: 6 nominations
Minari: 6 nominations
Sound of Metal: 6 nominations
Promising Young Woman: 5 nominations
Read More: Best Movies of 2020
