Oscars 2017 Predictions: ‘La La Land’ Still Ahead in the Race, But ‘Moonlight’ Close Behind

Last week nominations for both Golden Globes and SAG Awards were announced. Most of the nominees were on the expected lines but there were few surprises in store. The biggest surprise was ‘La La Land’ missing out on SAG Best Ensemble nomination. The last time a film won without a SAG Ensemble nomination was way back in 1995 — which was the first year of SAG Awards. Elsewhere, ‘La La Land’ scored big at the BFCA Awards where it won as many as 8 awards. It is continuing to perform well with the various critics groups. But if there is one film that has been given real boost by the critics groups, it has to be ‘Moonlight’. Not surprisingly though, considering it has 99% and 98% rating at metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes respectively. ‘Manchester by the Sea’ is holding its own fort checking all the right boxes and maintaining a relatively low profile — just like ‘Spotlight’ did last year.

Despite what many Oscar experts are saying, I am still standing by September prediction: ‘La La Land’ will win Best Picture. It is the “perfect” movie that the Academy can come behind — especially given the grimness that has engulfed movie industry after Donald Trump’s win.

Elsewhere, the two movies, ‘Fences’ and ‘Silence’ that I had identified as major threat to ‘La La Land’ in my last article have lost steam. ‘Fences’ received some glowing reviews when it was first shown but since then it hasn’t won a single major critics group award. ‘Silence’ also got some good reviews, but fairly quickly it was labeled as too challenging a movie to win Best Picture (something which I pointed out in previous article).

Overall, I am expecting a ‘La La Land’ sweep on Oscar night where it might win as many as 8-9 awards. Yes, the good, old Oscar sweep might be back this year.

Again, there are always good reliable sources like Hollywood Elsewhere and Awards Daily that I trust when it comes to getting a sense of the pulse of the industry during the awards season, but as far as making Oscar predictions is concerned, I trust my gut instinct more than anything else. And if you have been following The Cinemaholic for long enough, you will know that I enjoy making predictions more than watching the actual awards ceremony itself.

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Fences
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Jackie
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
9. Loving

10. Silence 
11. Patriot’s Day
12. Arrival 
13. 20th Century Women
14. Hidden Figures

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, ‘La La Land’
2. Barry Jenkins, ‘Moonlight’
3. Kenneth Lonergan, ‘Manchester by the Sea’
4. Martin Scorsese, ‘Silence’
5. Denzel Washington, ‘Fences’
6. Pablo Larraín, ‘Jackie’ 
7. Denis Velleneuve, ‘Arrival’
8. Jeff Nicholas, ‘Loving’
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
10. Mel Gibson, ‘Hacksaw Ridge’

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck, ‘Manchester by the Sea’
2. Denzel Washington, ‘Fences’
3. Ryan Gosling, ‘La La Land’
4. Andrew Garfield, ‘Hacksaw Ridge’
5. Joel Edgerton, ‘Loving’
6. Viggo Mortensen, ‘Captain Fantastic’ 
7. Tom Hanks, ‘Sully’ 
8. Michael Keaton, ‘The Founder’

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone, ‘La La Land’
2. Natalie Portman, ‘Jackie’
3. Annette Bening, ‘20th Century Women
4. Ruth Negga, ‘Loving’
5. Amy Adams, ‘Arrival’
6. Isabelle Huppert, ‘Elle’ 
7. Meryl Streep, ‘Florence Foster Jenkins’ 
8. Jessica Chastain, ‘Miss Sloane’
9. Taraji P. Henson, ‘Hidden Figures’ 

Best Supporting Actor 

1. Mahershala Ali, ‘Moonlight’
2. Lucas Hedges, ‘Manchester by the Sea’
3. Dev Patel, ‘Lion’
4. Stephen McKinley Henderson, ‘Fences’
5. Jeff Bridges, ‘Hell or High Water’
6. Ben Foster, ‘Hell or High Water’
7. Hugh Grant, ‘Florence Foster Jenkins’
8. Issei Ogata, ‘Silence’
9. Kevin Costner, ‘Hidden Figures’

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, ‘Fences’
2. Michelle Williams, ‘Manchester by the Sea’
3. Naomie Harris, ‘Moonlight’
4. Nicole Kidman, ‘Lion’
5. Greta Gerwig,’20th Century Women’
6. Octavia Spencer, ‘Hidden Figures’ 
7. Elle Fanning, ’20th Century Women’
8. Janelle Monae, ‘Hidden Figures’

Read More: Every Best Picture Winner Since 2000, Ranked