Gautam Anand
Anyone who follows this website knows how much I love doing this. Believe it or not, but I enjoy making the Oscar predictions more than the Oscar ceremony itself. There’s a famous saying that goes “The pleasure is in the journey and not in the destination”. That’s exactly true in this case; I enjoy the journey of one year of anticipation, agony and pleasure more than the three hours of mostly dull celebration. In any case, by the time the BIG night finally arrives, we already know three-fourth (or more) of the winners. At least, if you follow The Cinemaholic you definitely know. (We predicted 23 out of 24 Oscar nominations correctly last year.)
This year has been a particularly interesting year in terms of Oscar race. Rarely ever we see a race where three of the top six categories don’t have locked winners (Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Director are more or less locked). Considering that ‘Roma’ is so well liked and isn’t carrying any baggage of present or past — like some of the films on the nominee list — it will be very difficult for any other film to win. The way preferential balloting works (In case, you wanted to know how Best Picture winners are selected, head to this article), the least divisive film has the best shot of winning Best Picture. That’s why ‘Moonlight’ won over ‘La La Land’. That’s also why ‘Spotlight’ won over ‘The Revenant’. If you look at this year’s nominees, it won’t take you long to figure out that ‘Roma’ is the least divisive film of the lot. Some are of the view that since it is a Netflix film, many will not vote for it. But I don’t share that sentiment simply because voters who like ‘Roma’ aren’t going to not vote for it because it is a Netflix film. In any case, in preferential system you don’t vote for a film, but you rank them. Imagine, a voter, who liked Roma, with ballot in his hand thinking “I am going to rank Roma lower because it is a Netflix film”. Does that make any sense? Exactly!
Still, many believe that ‘Green Book’ has a good shot at winning Best Picture. I won’t completely rule out that possibility simply because ‘Green Book’ won PGA, the only Guild that follows the preferential system of voting. That tells me that the film has an inherent strength that is making voters rank it higher on the ballot. Having said that, I find it a little difficult to digest that the Academy that picked ‘Moonlight’ over ‘La La Land’ is going to prefer ‘Green Book’ over ‘Roma’. On top of that, foreign Academy members, a significant chunk after membership expansion, is definitely going to prefer ‘Roma’ over ‘Green Book’.
Must Read:
Oscars 2020 Best Picture Predictions
Oscars 2020 Best Actress Predictions
Oscars 2020 Best Actor Predictions
While most of the experts are confused between ‘Roma’ and ‘Green Book’, I believe ‘The Favourite’ can surprise everyone on the Oscar night. Not only because it might sweep the below-the-line categories, it also has a reasonable shot at actually winning Best Picture. We already know that the British contingent of the Academy loves the film. At the same time, I can see majority of the voters putting the film in top 3 of their ballots. So, going by the logic that the least hated film actually wins Best Picture, I won’t be shocked if ‘The Favorite’ pulls off the biggest upset of the night.
Apart from Best Picture, other top categories that are still up in the air are Best Supporting Actress and Best Actress. Regina King was the frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actress, but Rachel Weisz’s recent BAFTA win has made things unclear. Similarly, Glen Close was the de facto favorite to win Best Actress, but Olivia Coleman’s BAFTA win has made a dent in the race.
What is also striking about this year’s Oscar race is most of the below-the-line categories are very unpredictable. For example, the Best Sound Mixing is a close call between Bohemian Rhapsody and First Man. Best Costume Design could go to either The Favorite or Black Panther. Best Visual Effects is a race between First Man and Avengers Infinity War. Best Production Design is a fight between The Favorite and Roma. Overall, the whole race is one big giant mess, which if I am honest makes for a more exciting Oscar night. One thing I am sure about this year is that I won’t be able to repeat my last year’s prediction record. With that said, get ready and tie your seatbelts for the most unpredictable Oscar night in recent memory. Here are my final Oscar 2019 predictions:
Update: Green Book won Best Picture Oscar
Best Picture
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”
Will Win: “Roma”
Could Win: “Green Book” or “The Favourite”
Should Win: “Roma”
Best Director
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Could Win: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Best Actor
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Will Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Could Win: Christian Bale, “Vice”
Should Win: Christian Bale, “Vice”
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Will Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Could Win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Should Win: Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Could Win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Should Win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Will Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Could Win: Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Should Win: Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Best Original Screenplay
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
Will Win: “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Could Win: “Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Should Win: “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Will Win: “BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Could Win: “A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Should Win: “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Best Cinematography
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique
Will Win: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
Could Win: “Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
Should Win: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
Best Editing
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin
Will Win: “Vice,” Hank Corwin
Could Win: “The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Should Win: “The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Best Costume Design
“Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne
Will Win: “The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
Could Win: “Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
Should Win: “The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”
Will Win: “Vice”
Could Win: “Mary Queen of Scots”
Should Win: “Border”
Best Production Design
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Will Win: “The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Could Win: “Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Should Win: “First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
Best Original Score
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Will Win: “Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
Could Win: “BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
Should Win: “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
Best Original Song
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by Willie Watson, Tim Blake Nelson
Will Win: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
Could Win: “All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
Should Win: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
Best Sound Editing
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Will Win: “Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
Could Win: “A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Should Win: “First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
Best Sound Mixing
“Black Panther”, Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
“Bohemian Rhapsody”, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
“First Man”, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
“Roma”, Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia
“A Star Is Born”, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
Will Win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
Could Win: “A Star Is Born”, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
Should Win: “A Star Is Born”, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
Best Visual Effects
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Will Win: “First Man”
Could Win: “Avengers: Infinity War”
Should Win: “First Man”
Best Animated Feature
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Will Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Could Win: “Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
Should Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Best Foreign Film
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)
Will Win: “Roma” (Mexico)
Could Win: “Cold War” (Poland)
Should Win: “Roma” (Mexico)
Best Documentary Feature
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen
Will Win: “Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Could Win: “RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen
Should Win: “Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
Best Documentary Short Subject
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi
Will Win: “Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi
Could Win: “Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
Should Win: “Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi
Best Animated Short Subject
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez
Will Win: “Bao,” Domee Shi
Could Win: “Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez
Should Win: “Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez
Best Live Action Short Subject
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv
Will Win: “Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
Could Win: “Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
Should Win: “Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
Read More: Oscars 2020 Predictions
Further Reading:
What is Roma About, Explained
What is BlacKkKlansman About, Explained
What is A Star is Born About, Explained
What is Green Book About, Explained
Black Panther Ending and Post Credits, Explained
